The year 2018 saw millions of TV series lovers around the world saying goodbye to one of the most-watched TV shows ever, Game of Thrones. The HBO show is reputable as one of the most loved and highly rated TV series on Earth and was even claimed to be seen by the Queen of England, Queen Elizabeth II, herself.

Game of Thrones is an American fantasy TV show based on the synonymous book and other books in the A Song of Ice and Fire series by George R. R. Martin. The eight-season long TV show is centered on the Iron Throne which is the supreme monarchy seat of the Seven Kingdoms.

Relatively recently, the producers of Game of Thrones announced that a prequel to Game of Thrones was set to be released in 2022. The prequel which was christened “House of the Dragon” will be based on the book Fire and Blood by George R. R. Martin.

House of the Dragon follows the events that occurred about 200 years before Game of Thrones, particularly the Targaryen Civil War that led to the fall of the great House Targaryen.

Even though the spin-off is highly anticipated and will feature stars such as Matt Smith, Emma D’Arcy, and Paddy Considine, I think that it won’t measure up to its predecessor. Perhaps, House of the Dragon may end up being a great show, however, it’s unlikely that it’ll be a match for GOT. We’ve seen other terrific prequel spin-offs like Better Call Saul. Still, one thing they’ve got in common is that the original TV show outshines them most of the time.

Why House of the Dragon Will Be No Match for Game of Thrones

Several elements determine the success of a spin-off show over the original show. When considering these factors, it appears implausible for House of the Dragon to outdo Game of Thrones.

The bases for this assertion are:

1. House of the Dragon Has an Expected End

One reason Game of Thrones was highly successful and gained substantial viewership was its unpredictability. Right from the beginning of the show to its end, it was difficult or rather impossible to foresee the potential events. Who foresaw the decapitation of the lead role Eddard “Ned” Stark in the very first season? Who expected Brandon “Bran” Stark to end up as the King of Westeros in the final season of the show?

Nevertheless, in the case of House of the Dragon, we already know what’s gonna happen at the end of the show. Regardless of the stunts the producer tries to throw into the plot, we realize where the story is leading ultimately. The Targaryens end up being usurped from the thrones and their dragons end up being reduced to almost nothing. So, the series will be less suspenseful and thrilling than Game of Thrones.

2. House of the Dragon has Fewer Characters and a Thinner Storyline Than Game of Thrones 

Game of Thrones has to be among the TV shows with the most numerous characters. I admit that at some points when I was watching the show I found it difficult to follow the names of the numerous characters in the show. It was fascinating to see how the numerous characters in the show related to and with each other. This contributed immensely to the complexity of the show and the series’ fandom.

Again, Game of Thrones encompassed the so-called Seven Kingdoms of Westeros and Essos, myriads of houses and families, several religions and cultures, and various fantastic creatures. This complexity gave the viewers something to see in the show at all times and nothing to get bored of.

House of the Dragon is founded on House Targaryen and relatively few families making the storyline thinner and less intriguing.

3. New and Unfamiliar Characters in the Forthcoming Prequel

As Kit Harrington, the actor who played the legendary Jon Snow, stated, it will be “painful” to see new characters donning similar costumes to those in Game of Thrones. Since House of the Dragon is set 200 years before GOT, no single character from GOT is expected to be seen in the show. In this light, it will be more difficult for the viewers to connect with the unfamiliar characters. If the spin-off series were closer to the events of GOT, it’d have been more engaging. 

Perhaps, we may have seen the Young Ned Stark, Robert Baratheon, and John Arryn.

Another spin-off prequel Better Call Saul solved these potential drawbacks by featuring two supporting characters ( Saul Goodman and Michael “ Mike” Ehrmantraut)  from the original show Breaking Bad as its main roles.

4. Game of Thrones Had Better Source Materials

Usually, the key to making a good movie or TV show is to employ sufficient source materials when writing the plot. In the case of GOT and HOTD, the source materials are books in the A Song of Ice and Fire series by George R. R. Martin. Although Game of Thrones doesn’t follow the books faithfully, it draws its influences from multiple books in the series. Meanwhile, HOTD is based on a single book, Fire and Blood, written by Martin in 2018.

Though Fire and Blood is a fine book, all the books GOT is based on have higher Goodreads ratings. This factor also makes it unlikely for HOTD to measure up to GOT.

5. Game of Thrones Simply Set the Bar Too High

What are the odds that HOTD will be placed side-to-side to a show with an IMDB rating over 9/10, one of the most followed shows of all time, a show where we watched both the actors and characters age gracefully, a show that was a perfect mixture of politics, wars, love, family affairs, sex, philosophy, betrayals, power, fantasy, and drama? You’d agree with me that the odds are pretty high.

Game of Thrones placed the bar so high that no other identical show has been able to reach till now.

Bottom Line

I’m not insinuating that House of the Dragon would be a bad show. Of course, the show could turn out to be a wonderful show. Rather, I’m skeptical that the show would be able to meet or surpass the legacy of Game of Thrones.